Bloomberg
In the red
A risk-off mood is permeating markets,driven by a paring back of bets on the speed and depth of central bank rate cuts this year. US stock futures are sinking, following a drop across equities markets in Asia and Europe. Pricing in swaps markets for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March has slipped to about a 65% chance, from 80% at the end of last week. Bond traders have started to pick up options to hedge against the prospect of a half-point March cut.
Comment：降息不降息的不重要，最烦的就是宽幅震荡，不过万幸今年有方法对抗了。
Pullback and pushback
The pullback in rate-cut bets picked uppace following comments yesterday from the Fed’s Christopher Waller. He said the central bank needs to take a careful approach to cutting rates, saying there is no need to move as quickly in the past. His comments, though showing an openness to cuts, were interpreted as more hawkish than what traders had been pricing. Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have been forcefully pushing back on what the market expects.
Commnet：每次都这样，要谨慎，要缓慢。所以一定需要时间触发，这个我早已经总结过。
China’s woes
The mood was also darkened by disappointingeconomic growth data from China. A measure of prices underlined the deflation challenge, with its longest streak of declines since 1999. Investors responded by exiting Chinese stocks in a show of pessimism about the nation’s economy. That’s fueled more calls forstimulus measures, with the action taken by authorities so far underwhelming investors.
Comment：不予评论。
Crude slips
Oil prices are in retreat too, weighed downby a combination of the stronger dollar, Chinese economic weakness and the broader risk-off sentiment which is overshadowing supply risks related to turmoil in the Red Sea. WTI futures slid close to $70 a barrel, while Brent fell below $77. Those Red Sea concerns remain prominent, however. Saudi Arabia said it was “incredibly concerned” about regional security as conflict in the Middle East spreads, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde flagged the potential inflationary risks from supply chain disruption.
Comment：赶紧下吧，倒不是要从油价赚钱，只是油价太高，搞得我都没法去自驾浪了。
The Fed will release its Beige Book oncurrent economic conditions will be released later and a slew of other speakers from the bank will be up to bat — that includes John Williams and Michelle Bowman. Given the pullback in rate-cut bets, those will be watched closely. Retail sales data is on the slate too. More financial stocks will report results, including Charles Schwab and Discover Financial, and keep an eye on shares of airlines JetBlue and Spirit after their planned merger was blocked by a Judge yesterday. That sent Spirit shares down by 47% and they are falling another 9% in premarket trading.
Comment：美中1点，美东2点。就特别烦，一天天的，一会儿这个一会儿内个。市场都搞得像神经病似的。
Yahoo：
Retail sales data: The Census Bureau'sDecember retail sales data is expected to show buying jumped from November's 0.3% increase to 0.4%. It's yet another data point that would indicate a healthy consumer — rather than a "surging" one.
Comment：不得不说，老美的消费能力是真强。再看看某个只会靠红头文件拉动经济的政府，只能呵呵了。
The Beige Book: The first of 2024's BeigeBooks are set to be released by the Federal Reserve, collecting anecdotes that aim to represent actual business conditions across the Fed's 12 districts and provide context to all the hard numbers. The last Beige Book showed slowing economic activity and easier hiring conditions that likely helped sell investors on the March rate cut narrative.
Comment：褐皮书，讲话，今天弄不好又是低开，午后急拉，whatever了，期权开上，等着就是了。
More earnings follow: Investors will hearfrom Charles Schwab, Discover, US Bancorp, Citizens Financial, and Prologis, representing a wide swath of the financial industry, including retail trading, consumer and investment banking, credit cards, and real estate investing. Pipeline company Kinder Morgan and aluminum giant Alcoa will also report.
Comment：none。