20240118盘前新闻汇总

就业市场数据：

初请失业人数：预测203k，前值207k，今值187k
续请失业人数：预测1834k，前值1845k，今值1806k

就业市场火爆。。。。降息更没戏了。今儿又要跳水的节奏？

Bloomberg：

三月降息概率下滑：
Investors want an interest-rate cut. The Federal Reserve isn’t so sure the economy needs one yet. And now traders are throwing a tantrum. US December retail sales beat expectations across the board on Wednesday, showing that the consumer remains resilient, and knocked down the probability of a March rate cut to that of a coin toss. Fed officials have said as much, too. Fed governor Christopher Waller said rates would be lowered “methodically and carefully” at best. So all those bold bets for a March cut are being reconsidered, leading to higher Treasury yields and a lower stock market.
Comment：个人认为三月降息完全不用考虑，甚至五月都没戏，除非有特殊事件触发。

Spirit前景堪忧：
Spirit Airlines shares continued their freefall Wednesday after a judge blocked the company’s merger with JetBlue over antitrust concerns. In the Tuesday ruling, US District Judge William G. Young made an impassioned case that a merger would eliminate a deep fare discounter, driving up ticket prices and hurting consumers. “Spirit is a small airline. But there are those who love it. To those dedicated customers of Spirit, this one’s for you,” he wrote. But if the struggling Spirit plunges into disrepair — as the company’s 24% stock decline Wednesday on top of a 47% plunge Tuesday suggests — there may not be a functioning carrier in the not-so-distant-future to offer those rock-bottom prices. Analysts are already raising the possibility of a Spirit bankruptcy filing and reorganization or even a liquidation.
Comment：这样的过程，我只想说是在为JetBlue提供一个更低价收购Spirit的机会，商业的本质

日本股市又要来一波？
It’s boom time for traders in — Japan? As the Bank of Japan is widely expected to put an end to the world’s last negative interest rate in the next few months, the world’s third-largest government bond market is buzzing, the benchmark stock index has hit a 34-year high, and brokerages across Tokyo are staffing up — often seeking out older, experienced traders who remember when Japan last had positive rates.
Comment：日股挺好玩的，上一次这样的繁荣还是80年代了。

数字货币前景几何？
The debate over whether cryptocurrencies are securities raged again Wednesday in a New York federal courtroom, where Coinbase Global Inc. squared off with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The biggest US crypto exchange said buying Bitcoin on an exchange was like buying Beanie Babies: Tokens trading on the exchange aren’t securities subject to SEC jurisdiction because buyers don’t gain any rights as part of their purchases, as they do with stocks or bonds. The regulator sued Coinbase for allegedly selling unregistered securities, and Coinbase is in court trying to get the case dismissed. Meanwhile, longtime crypto believer Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management is snapping up shares of its newly launched Bitcoin ETF.
Comment：作为交易员，我没有什么信仰，我的信仰就是获利，所以数字货币到底算不算，与我无关。

继续战斗？
Middle East tensions are ratcheting up after the US launched another round of strikes on Yemen’s Houthis overnight. The American military targeted 14 Houthi missiles just before midnight Yemeni time. Hours later, Pakistan launched missiles against militants in Iran. Oil prices edged higher on Thursday following the strikes, with Brent rising above $78 a barrel as concern builds around the potential for interruptions to crude production and disrupted supply chains. Since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted in October, the Houthis have attacked vessels in the Red Sea, US bases have come under fire from Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria, and Tehran has struck targets in neighboring countries.
Comment：打吧，油价越高，美国CPI越高，降息可能性越低。

台积电可以埋伏了吗？
TSMC, the main chipmaker to Apple and Nvidia, said it expects a return to solid growth this quarter, suggesting the world’s most valuable chipmaker anticipates a recovery in smartphone and computing demand. TSMC is budgeting capital expenditure of $28 billion to $32 billion, and expects revenue growth to bounce back to at least 20% for the year. The Taiwanese company’s outlook, while not quite surpassing the most bullish estimates, comes after a years-long slump in tech demand. But these results should boost the signs of a recovery for the chipmaking sector that have emerged in recent weeks. TSMC also announced another delay to its $40 billion site in Arizona, in a further blow to the Biden administration’s plans to boost manufacturing of critical components on US soil.
Comment：不看好苹果，也不看好英伟达，虚高的AI泡沫应该快破了。至于苹果。。。很多人都已经开始转回win平台。刚说完，今天就飚了7%，晕。

苹果崩盘开始
Apple will begin selling versions of its Series 9 and Ultra 2 watches without a blood oxygen feature in the US, after a legal setback in its patent dispute with Masimo Corp. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit declined to grant Apple a longer pause on an import ban of the devices imposed by the US International Trade Commission. This means Apple has to stop selling watches with the oxygen measurement feature while an appeal of the ban plays out, a delay that could last a year or more. Elsewhere, Apple is also poised to face a US antitrust lawsuit as soon as March, with enforcers alleging that the company has imposed software and hardware limitations on iPhones and iPads to stop rivals successfully competing.
Comment：我觉得这只是苹果帝国崩盘的开始

Yahoo：

Consumers are still on fire: Retail sales blew past estimates on Wednesday, rising 0.6% last month against expectations for a 0.4% increase. It's the second surprise in a row and an indication that the consumer remains in good shape. Thursday will give investors their weekly read on initial jobless claims, which are expected to be mostly flat.
Comment：老美的（透支）消费能力是真的强。

Rate cut hopes dim little by little: That retail data point, along with December's hot jobs report and CPI reading, may finally be dimming the market’s hopes for a March rate cut. Oxford Economics wrote Wednesday the US is "cooling only gradually," which leads the firm to agree with Fed Governor Christoper Waller's comments this week that the central bank will cut rates "methodically and carefully."

‌Paint, hardware, logistics, and more banks: Quarterly reports from PPG, Fastenal, KeyCorp, J.B. Hunt, M&T Bank, and Northern Trust will offer investors a look at performance across the financial and manufacturing industries on Thursday.

WSJ提示关注股票：

↗️ Boeing Co (BA): The plane maker's shares were up around 1.7% premarket after Boeing got an order to sell 150 of its 737 MAX aircraft to India’s Akasa Air.

↗️ Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), (TW: 2330): The chip maker's U.S.-listed stock climbed premarket after the company reported a drop in net profit, but still topped analysts' forecasts. U.S. rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also traded up.

↗️ Richemont (CH: CFR): The Swiss luxury-goods company posted higher sales, beating Wall Street expectations. The stock jumped nearly 10% in European trading.

🔎 Meta Platforms (META): Sheryl Sandberg, the company's former chief operating officer, said she plans to leave the board of directors after 12 years.

↘️ Plug Power (PLUG): The stock fell over 15% in offhours trading after the company said it plans to issue up to $1 billion in new shares. It issued a going-concern warning last quarter.

↘️ Discover Financial Services (DFS): The stock tumbled around 11% premarket after the company reported after hours that its quarterly profit was hit by sizable provision for credit losses, and missed analysts' estimates.

🔎 PPG Industries (PPG) and J.B. Hunt (JBHT) are among the companies scheduled to post earnings after markets close.